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加密货币市场出现“可靠的触底信号”——是否可信? – NewsBTC 亚洲版
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加密货币市场出现“可靠的触底信号”——是否可信?

christy
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5 years ago

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“加密货币市场已经触底了吗?”——这是比特币交易商在过去几周反复思考的问题。经历了3月12日的大规模抛售后,各交易商在这个问题上产生了分歧。

尽管未来的市场充满不确定性,加密货币分析师Willy Woo发表了自己对上述问题的看法,他指出有两个基本指标表明筑底已经完成。

关键比特币挖矿指标表明加密货币市场已触底

Willy Woo运用两个指标作出解释:比特币挖矿生态系统的发展方向表明加密货币市场已在3月份触底。

首先,Hash Ribbons指标(哈希率移动平均值)开始恢复,这是一个“可靠的见底信号”。Hash Ribbons指标上一次出现类似的情况是在2019年12月,当时的比特币价格位于6400美元的底部;而再上一次类似的情况是出现在2018年12月,当时的比特币价格则位于3150美元的底部。

其次,矿工能耗比(比特币市值与其能量消耗之间的比率)处在买入区间。而在3月份的崩盘期间,矿工能耗比还短暂进入“极端买入区间”。类似的情况曾出现在前一次比特币减半的几个月前,随后出现了4000%的反弹,将比特币价格推升到20000美元。

“两个矿工指标走势图说明:Hash Ribbons指标(假设其不会再降低)正在恢复,这是一个可靠的触底信号,但是有些矿工可能在三月崩盘的时候就放弃了。类似的情况曾出现在2018年12月,那时候只有实力强大的矿工坚持了下来。我认为目前矿工不会再增加更多的抛售压力。pic.twitter.com/t0GEqKCKjv”

— Willy Woo (@woonomic) 2020年4月5日

其他指标也看涨比特币

还有其他一些因素也表明加密货币市场已经度过最黑暗的时期。

加密货币交易员Nik Patel在推特上分享的英国加密货币经纪商的交易截图显示,这些平台的大多数用户都在做多比特币。而IG.com上78%的客户都持有比特币。

除此以外,Coinbase Pro的订单簿显示,购买比特币的交易商比出售的更多,其中价格在2000美元以下的订单购买比特币的数量接近24000枚,而价格在12000美元以上的订单购买的比特币数量大约为4000枚。

比特币需求如此旺盛的事实表明,卖家将很难再把比特币推回3800美元的低点。

彭博社(Bloomberg)认为,目前的技术指标均指向比特币的上行趋势。根据NewsBTC此前的报道,GTI Vera技术指标在最近三个月内首次显示彭博银河加密货币指数(Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Index)的购买信号,该指数由比特币、以太坊、莱特币、比特币现金、XRP和EOS组成。

此外,NewsBTC在4月3日也提到比特币已经突破了一个关键技术阻力位,导致一个技术指标出现了“正背离和买入信号”。该指标上一次出现类似情况是在2020年1月,随后比特币上涨了50%,价格达到10500美元。


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