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一个月后比特币将迎来下一轮减半

christy
christy
5 years ago

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如果您在过去几个月内有仔细阅读过加密货币的新闻和比特币社交媒体的资讯推送,那么您可能听说过一个叫“减半”的事件。分析师认为这一周期性事件对加密货币市场的未来发展至关重要。尽管目前全球肆虐的新冠病毒对资本市场造成负面影响,即将到来的比特币减半仍有可能标志着下一轮牛市的开始。

但什么是减半呢?它又将如何影响比特币的发展?

什么是减半?

不同于各国央行及国库能随心印刷的法币,比特币遵循严格且不会轻易改变的货币政策,确保能供开采的比特币总量只有2100万枚。每挖出21万个区块,奖励就会减半,按照比特币大约十分钟的出块时间间隔来算,比特币减半为每四年一次。

比特币减半机制如下图所示。(图片来源:BitcoinBlockHalf.com)

由于比特币减半的复合效应,总量为2100万枚的比特币将在大约2140年被开采完。除非矿工之间达成共识,否则比特币总量将不会增加。

数据显示,下一次减半将发生在五月中旬。

减半将对比特币有何影响?

尽管每一次比特币减半的影响都能事先为人们所知,许多交易员推测,减半将对加密货币的价值(尤其是比特币)产生巨大的影响。

匿名比特币定量分析师PlanB表示,这次减半将对加密货币起到决定性的推动作用,能助其价格突破2017年12月创下的20000美元历史高点。

2019年3月,他发布了以下模型。该模型显示,比特币的稀缺性(通过S2F比率衡量)将以指数的方式影响比特币网络的价值。即将到来的减半将使比特币的S2F比率达到50,接近黄金的水平。与此同时,这一次减半也将让比特币网络的公允价值升至1万亿至2万亿美元,而每枚比特币的价值将达到5万至10万美元。

该模型已被回测到R平方的95%,并与资产价格协整,意味着模型的准确率非常高。

但也有一些人认为这次减半将对比特币不利。他们指出:一旦减半发生,矿工的收入也将减半,这将迫使他们出售自己持有的比特币以维持正常运营,从而促使加密货币价格走低。

的确,在2016年比特币减半发生后的几天里,比特币价格下跌了超过30%,让空头交易者在短时间内大赚了一笔。

而另一些则认为接下来的这次减半不会掀起什么波澜。

资深交易员Peter Brandt在自己的推文中解释了这一思考过程。他表示,由于加密资产交易量庞大,这种小幅下降不会造成很大影响。

找准自己的位置

随着比特币减半日益临近,交易者可以通过SimpleFX找准自己的立场(多头或空头),而这取决于他们相信哪种说法。

SimpleFX将能让交易员通过交易工具WebTrader(可在电脑、平板或手机上使用)充分利用比特币减半对加密货币市场的影响。在SimpleFX平台上,他们可以进行比特币的保证金交易。SimpleFX还支持以太坊、莱特币、XRP等加密资产和外汇、大宗商品和股指等其他资产类别的交易。


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